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The story discusses the vulnerability of the oil-rich Gulf states with reference to food and water security.  The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are increasingly worried about food and water stresses on the populations and industries.  Petroleum extraction and oil production are water intensive industries.  The problems of expensive fresh water production become even more acute as petroleum supplies dwindle and food production becomes more critical.  All of the GCC states are net food consumers with very little food production taking place in the region.  Some desalination is taking place, but not on a scale necessary to any definition of water security.  Additionally, saline pollution of the Gulf is a serious environmental concern.

Addressing these problems are creating opportunities for businesses and new research opportunities.

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Synopsis:

There were many stories these last two weeks, far too many to cover.  As a result a supplement to this newsletter will hopefully be out later this week.  All stories are archived on the website in order of their original publication date at:  www.foodsecurityupdates.com.

Climate change food security issues are particularly being highlighted this week with the upcoming UN Convention on Climate Change being held in Durban, South Africa later this month.  The famines in Somalia and Afghanistan are making the news as civil ware and drought continue in east Africa and winter arrives in central Asia.  Here in North America food pantries are lowing at historical lows as the traditional donations from the general public are running dry due to sagging economic conditions.

Two stories of significant importance come from the end of October: Crop scientists now fret about heat not just water and Warming could exceed safe levels in this lifetime.  In the first story, agricultural scientists are noticing an inability of plant physiology to keep up rising temperatures.  The second story discusses the rapid rate of global temperature increases.  Fianally, the last story in this weeks series discusses how temperature increases are forcing evolutionary changes to plant and invertebrate life.  There is a link to the author and her work at the end of the story.

Commodities:

The price of WTI today (11/21/2011) is $97.41 /bbl on this morning’s markets (up slightly from $94.42 two weeks ago), the Brent Crude Index is at $107.16/bbl, down from $111..97; and gold is currently trading at $1647, down significantly from $1758/oz from two weeks ago.  Corn is trading at $5.98/bsh , down from $6.56/bsh; and Wheat is at $7.39/bsh, down from $7.88/bsh.

Table ofContents:

19 November 2011:  Food Shortage at Salvation Army for Thanksgiving 2011

November 2011 (Undated): The future of world food and nutrition security >>> Investing in smallholder agriculture – an international priority

19 November 2011:  UN Calls for More Aid to Reverse Famine in Somalia

18 November 2011:  Aid groups: 2 million Afghans face food shortages

16 November 2011:  CLIMATE CHANGE: A quick guide to what drives adaptation

15 November 2011:  US Drought Drives Up Food Prices

14 November 2011:  MYANMAR: Deforestation threatens breadbasket

14 November 2011:  Food crisis drives more N. Koreans to drugs, defection

09 November 2011:  Climate change threatens drop in grain harvest

08 November 2011:  Food inflation threatens stability in Iran

03 November 2011:  Food Crisis as Kenya Opens its Doors to GMOs

01 November 2011:  Rising food cost forces children to eat leaves in world’s poorest countries

31 October 2011:  BASF applies for EU approval for Fortuna GM potato

24 October 2011:  Crop scientists now fret about heat not just water

23 October 2011:  Warming could exceed safe levels in this lifetime

18 October 2011:  Turning wood into oil, in two simple steps

16 October 2011:  Climate change spawns the incredible shrinking ant

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The United Nations is calling for additional aid to the east African nation of Somalia.  The nation has been in a civil war since the 90’s and has been suffering under a sever drought for the past three years.  Some areas have improved, but in order to sustain the gains  additional relief supplies will be needed.  The story mentions that there are approximate 3.2-million people in dire need of assistance.  Most of these people are in the south.

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In a scenario that we have been watching unfold, Z6 Magazine reports that Salvation Army food pantries across the United States have been running low on food this year.  Though the shortage has been going on for some time, it is particularly noticeable around the holidays when more news outlets traditionally give more coverage to the poor.  The story names a handful of pantries across the country.  In Tulsa, Oklahoma, one mission organizer calls the situation severe, seeing “…extreme food shortages” for holiday distribution.

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Nine international aid agencies, operating in Afghanistan are reporting that more than 2-million people are suffering famine as a result of this year’s continued drought and high snow fall making village access difficult for regular commercial and aid deliveries.

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This is a setup piece for the UN sponsored Framework Convention on Climate Change talks that will be taking place in Durban, South Africa, November 28^th ~ December 9^th, 2011.

In short, the UN authors are quite gloomy about nations reaching any further accords to reducing global greenhouse gases.  They site the poor global economy for driving the demand for cheap fossil fuels over more expensive forms of cleaner energy: and that fact that there are already numerous fossil fuel power plants currently in the construction phase.

The authors lament the fact that mitigation of reducing greenhouses gases has appeared to have failed.  As a result, they are calling on the need for adaptation and effective response strategies to protect populations and food producing ecosystems as a direct result of climate change.

According to the IPCC, the tipping point for dramatic ecosystem changes, flooding, coastal erosion, rising seas and crop failures (to name a few) will come at 2 degrees Celsius.  Though this was once predicted to be a possibility around the year 2100, it is now projected to be a certainty by mid-century.

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According to an investment newsletter, NuWire Investor, the average Thanksgiving diner will cost 13% more this year than it did in 2010.  The newsletter quotes the source for this information as the American Farm Bureau and blames the drought in the American Southwest as the reason for the price increase.  Additionally, the National Climate Data Center states that this years drought has caused more than 10-billion dollars (US) worth of damage and losses to agriculture and cattle.

According to the report, the price of beef is up 10% (probably from the beginning of the summer) and most of the herds that were sold off as a result of the drought, most were sold before they had the opportunity to reproduce.  US cattle herds are at their lowest numbers in 38 years (1973).  The price of hay has gone up from $80/ton to $200/ton; and the price of peanuts has jumped $450/ton to $1200/ton.

The drought is not expected to let up before next spring or summer.

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The Korean Times is reporting that North Koreans are turning to drugs, suicide and defection as a result of the chronic food shortage that have been facing the country.  The story goes on to report that the recent currency reforms have failed and the food rationing system is not working properly.  Additionally, massive flooding earlier this year washed away tens of thousands of hectares of farm land.  Seoul has restricted aide to its northern neighbor, due to the ongoing military skirmishes, adding to the famine.

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